Carl Shulman (Pt 2) – AI Takeover, Bio & Cyber Attacks, Detecting Deception, & Humanity's Far Future
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The second half of my 7 hour conversation with Carl Shulman is out!
My favorite part! And the one that had the biggest impact on my worldview.
Here, Carl lays out how an AI takeover might happen:
– AI can threaten mutually assured destruction from bioweapons,
– use cyber attacks to take over physical infrastructure,
– build mechanical armies,
– spread seed AIs we can never exterminate,
– offer tech and other advantages to collaborating countries, etc
Plus we talk about a whole bunch of weird and interesting topics which Carl has thought about:
– what is the far future best case scenario for humanity
– what it would look like to have AI make thousands of years of intellectual progress in a month
– how do we detect deception in superhuman models
– does space warfare favor defense or offense
– is a Malthusian state inevitable in the long run
– why markets haven’t priced in explosive economic growth
– & much more
Carl also explains how he developed such a rigorous, thoughtful, and interdisciplinary model of the biggest problems in the world.
Links
Catch part 1 here: https://youtu.be/_kRg-ZP1vQc
Transcript: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/carl-shulman-2
Apple Podcasts: https://bit.ly/3r1HBJk
Spotify: https://bit.ly/437t50c
Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp
Carl’s blog: http://reflectivedisequilibrium.blogspot.com/
Sponsor
This episode is sponsored by 80,000 hours. To get their free career guide (and to help out this podcast), please visit 80000hours.org/lunar.
Timestamps
(0:00:00) – Intro
(0:00:47) – AI takeover via cyber or bio
(0:32:27) – Can we coordinate against AI?
(0:53:49) – Human vs AI colonizers
(1:04:55) – Probability of AI takeover
(1:21:56) – Can we detect deception?
(1:47:25) – Using AI to solve coordination problems
(1:56:01) – Partial alignment
(2:11:41) – AI far future
(2:23:04) – Markets & other evidence
(2:33:26) – Day in the life of Carl Shulman
(2:47:05) – Space warfare, Malthusian long run, & other rapid fire
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